Sunday, August 28, 2005

Extirpate, Assassinate, or Castrate?

Sorry for the obscure pun in the title, I have a thing for obscure puns, just look at the name of the blog for goodness sake. The 'Castrate' comes from a cartoonist's (1) very sharp political humor that portrayed Venezuela saying: "I am not being Cubanized, I am being Castrated." After some exchange on my post regarding Pat Robertson's comment, which happened in Miguel's blog (it's a connected world after all), I realized that I had not elaborated on my opinion regarding the content of the comment itself, perhaps for the same reasons that I argued other bloggers would want to brush over the issue, or perhaps because I like being obscure like that. So let me correct that oversight. But first you need to know a bit about my thought process, I have no problem juggling multiple contradictory 'facts' in my head to follow a rational argument, everything is relative, I don't have a freudian need for absolutes. Even if such a thing might seem unconceivable for a large proportion of G. W. Bush voters in the last electoral campaign (2). So let's suspend morals, with that pesky 6th commandment, for a second (context alert to the CPM™: If any of you quote me without quoting this paragraph, I will consider that as your legally binding express authorization to exercise the 'Castrate' option on you):

begin{no-morals}

Let's assume that Chavez is assassinated (who does it is really irrelevant, the US will be blamed no matter what). And let's assume that we are talking about a 'clean' assassination, not a mob lynching. A very clear possibility, and probably the reason that any manifestation is now heavily repressed, just imagine what would happen if a crowd 1/10th of the magnitude of the one of the referendum campaign were to arrive uninvited to Chavez's party.

Transition of power

The only constitutional alternative to assume power is a person that could be even worse, as a president, than Chavez, JVR. A new election will happen in a year or so (article: 233) and he does not have the charisma or the pull of his boss, but other alternatives could be equally bad. Given that Chavez is the only important figure in the Chavez government, no other Chavista leader should be able to legally keep power, and a leader of the new opposition might gain more strength, but remember that we are talking about the CNE here, they do not need people to vote as long as the votes can be fabricated, the money flow must go on. And now, there is a very reduced US in the world community and with the huge international outrage there would be no way to revert this tendency without even more violence (generating even more outrage). With Bush's approval rating down the gutter, Venezuela is hosed. Only a true democrat public Chavista could avoid this scenario, but read Jorge on that.

Cuban invasion forces

At best count we have 50000 cuban personnel in Venezuela, infiltrating multiple instances of the government. My best bet is that they would try to prop some puppet into power using the same existing Chavez machinery, but with the added benefit of assassination power, the US would surely be blamed for these also. The Castration scenario could be an even bigger danger here.

Political opposition (3)

After about 5 seconds of mourning (the time to make sure that they are not dreaming), they would have 10 seconds of celebration, before the sharper ones realize that now they are going against a martyr, a much bigger figure than Chavez, while obviously being "the collaborators" of the ones that made him the martyr. They are extremely diminished as it is, this would be their coup de grâce.

Ultra-Chavista masses

I believe that many opposition leaders, the media, the many organizations, the not-lowest class districts of Caracas, in short, any of Chavez's favorite targets would have to start running for their lives, these masses are the ones with the guns. Infrastructure would be slashed and burned, under the call of 'let them f** themselves' (without realizing that they should have used 'ourselves' in that phrase). Chavez has armed a bomb, and he himself is the kill switch. The Chavista military would have to take control of the situation, at some point, and given Chavez's purges I wonder if there is any democrat left in the bunch.

Regional conflicts

In Venezuela the perception of Chavez is closer to reality, I believe a huge majority of the population knows what he is, even Chavistas (they just don't care). But the same is not true for the region, he is a much bigger figure abroad, and several governments have started to align with his preaching. So now we are dealing with a martyr much bigger than the Ché. I predict long periods of uncontrollable instability.

What would the leftist screaming benchies do?

Whine, moan, make blogs insufferable, stage hundreds of manifestations in front of the White House and the Senate, and buy lots and lots of Chavez's T-shirts and red berets, probably made in Cuba.

What would the international media do?

The same thing they always do, print whatever the CPM™ sends them. Under this scenario Venezuela would probably go through an extremely harsh transitionary period, and it would devolve quite a few decades more than what it already has. And why bother, a much simpler alternative for the US is to put a gun (a really big one) to Smartmatic's head, and play with the electoral machines themselves, who knows, maybe that's what's causing so much trouble inside the CNE these days, they might be having to make their own numbers by hand, thief stealing from a thief (4)....

end{no-morals}

So, the only real alternative in my mind is to force the democratic solutions, Chavez has to be exposed for what he is: a criminal and a Dictator. There are a myriad constitutional means to get rid of him (using the constitution as toilet paper might as well be one of them), article 350 (the "people will not recognize an authoritarian regime" article), suggested by the Venezuelan Clergy, is just one of many, it's just a matter of forcing the hand of the Chavista institutions to apply the constitution, it could be extremely hard, but I choose to believe that it's not impossible. The recommendations expressed by the Center For Security Policy might even work. His multiple crimes have to be made very internationally public, an impartial court (there must be one somewhere) has to sentence him, the court of opinion has to sentence him. We have to legally extirpate this cancer that has corroded all of Venezuelan society, and is corroding all of the Americas (even the U.S.). He cannot be made a martyr, or the whole hemisphere could go down in flames. It's the only moral thing that can be done.
  1. I believe it was Zapata, the same one that draw the cartoons that offended Danny Glover, and the TransAfrica forum so much.
  2. "The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." -F. Scott Fitzgerald. Another quirk of mine, I like to quote famous people.
  3. Note that I am explicit, this is the true political opposition. It does not include Súmate, yours trully and my fellow bloggers, and many other organizations that are portrayed as 'opposition' by the CPM™. Another label used to discredit the extremely valuable democratic work done by portraying a single 'opposition' group that contains the old political actors (have I mentioned that I have a problem with labels?). After all, anyone that has democratic convictions opposes a Dictator.
  4. An spanish saying: "A thief that steals from a thief has a hundred years of forgiveness," this is one that has always troubled me, but there are no morals in that section so it's OK.
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